The Tomorrow Project

Latest from the Tomorrow Project

NEW PUBLICATION

GOING GLOBAL: KEY QUESTIONS FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

Going Global addresses a series of aspects of globalisation including emerging economies, the gap between rich and poor nations, global communications, feeding the world's population, migration, terrorism, crime, climate change and energy.

The chapter headings are:

1. Getting your mind round globalisation

2. How fast will the global economy grow?

3. Will the emerging economies catch up with the West?

4. Will the gap between the richest and the poorest countries narrow?

5. How will the world feed its growing population?

6. What will happen to global migration?

7. How will global communications impact people's lives?

8. How will the world be governed?

9. What will successful organisations be like?

10. Who will win the 'war on terror'?

11. Will global crime get the upper hand?

12. How will the world manage climate change?

13. Will we have enough energy?

14. What will change?

In each case the book reviews where we are now, looks at potential trends for the next twenty years and then considers the implications.

Professor Jan Aart Scholte of the Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation at the University of Warwick has commented: 'A compact and comprehensive guide for the concerned citizen. Globalisation is made accessible, the choices ahead are made clear.'

Going Global is the latest in our series of publications produced in partnership with the Economic and Social Research Council (for details see » The Tomorrow Project and the ESRC).

It is published by A & C Black with Guardian Books and copies may be obtained through http://www.acblack.com/Catalogue/details.asp?sku=1425067&dept%5Fid=16.

GLIMPSES of tomorrow

GLIMPSES of tomorrow describes emerging social, economic and demographic trends.

Why not use GLIMPSES to help:

Research a topic

Write a business plan

Prepare a speech or presentation

In your teaching

Prepare for a conference or workshop

What people say about GLIMPSES:

'It is a wonderfully comprehensive and balanced view of the whole field with, in my view, very sensible predictions of the way things are heading.'

Charles Handy (on Employment)

'This is an excellent outline of the key issues concerning the impact of globalisation on the world economy. It is thorough, draws on some of the best recent work on the subject and deals with the material in practical, jargon free language.'

Hamish McRae of The Independent

'I found the material you sent me absolutely fascinating and full of wise questioning. The coverage of the main sources was impressive.'

Professor Ray Pahl of Essex University (on Individuals, identity and values)

'I wish to say how impressed I am with the draft and the largely comprehensive way in which it addresses the issues that need to be discussed in the evolution of policy on climate change.'

Mayer Hillman of the Policy Studies Institute and author of How We Can Save the Planet

'Unlike many other commentaries that rely on anecdotes and speculation to form judgements about work futures, this study is firmly rooted in the evidence base. It draws upon the latest research produced by social scientists, particularly from the ESRC Future of Work Programme.'

Professor Peter Nolan of Leeds University and Director of the ESRC Future of Work Programme (on Employment)

'I take my hat off to MM and RTW for the excellent job they've done. I have no hesitation in suggesting that their report will be an indispensable resource as well as the starting point for serous discussion and debate about policy.'

Rita Donaghy, Chair of the Advisory, Conciliation and Arbitration Service (ACAS)

'An impressive job. Well done. The report is very good, far better than many I read.'

Ian Pearson, BT (on Media and technology)

This is an exciting project and I would like to use the materials to inspire participants in my courses (for teachers, post-graduates and undergraduates)

Angela Jackson, Centre for Studies in Enterprise, Career Development and Work, University of Strathclyde

GLIMPSES provides a 'map' of recent trends to help people answer three questions: Where have we come from? Where are we going? What do we need to think about? Topics are grouped under the following headings:

Globalisation

Life course

Individuals, identity and values

Media and technology

Politics and government

Social exclusion

Employment

Sustainability

Each topic is addressed in three parts: 'The story so far', 'The next 20 years' and 'Implications'.

The GLIMPSES database draws on the latest academic and other research. The material, which is focused on the UK, has been reviewed for quality by experts (except where we specify that a particular section is subject to review) and will be regularly updated. It has been mainly compiled by Dr. Michael Moynagh at Templeton College, Oxford, and GLIMPSES is project managed by Richard Worsley.

There are no restrictions on the use of GLIMPSES material. The Tomorrow Project welcomes acknowledgment when the material is reproduced.

The experts who have reviewed the material are as follows:-

Globalisation:

Hamish McRae of The Independent

Professor Tom Ling of the Rand Corporation

Professor Bruce Lloyd of South Bank University

Dr. Angela Wilkinson of the James Martin Institute for Science and Civilisation

Dr. Chris Hughes of the Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation, University of Warwick

Alan Wright, writer on organised crime

Life course:

Dr. Sarah Harper, Director of the Oxford Institute of Ageing

Patrick Grattan of TAEN: The Age and Employment Network

Individuals, identity and values:

Professor Ray Pahl of Essex University

Media and technology:

Ian Pearson, BT's futurologist

Politics and government:

Dr. Peter Kellner, Chairman and founder of YouGov

Graham Leicester, Director and founder of the International Futures Forum

Iain Roxburgh, Director of the Local Authorities Research Consortium at Warwick Business School

Social exclusion:

Donald Hirsch of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation

Employment:

Mike Emmott of the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development

Dr. John Knell, formerly of the Work Foundation and now of The Intelligence Agency

Professor Bruce Lloyd of South Bank University

Pamela Meadows of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Professor Peter Nolan, Director of the Economic and Social Research Council’s Future of Work Programme

David Yeandle of the EEF

Sustainability:

Dr. Mayer Hillman of the Policy Studies Institute

Dr. Angela Wilkinson of the James Martin Institute for Science and Civilisation, Oxford University

Professor Albert McGill of Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia

Material is now available on all these topics. We are in the process of adding photographic illustrations and the search/indexing facilities are being further developed.

GLIMPSES is a dynamic process, subject to regular review, improvement and updating. It starts with ‘emerging knowledge’, exposed for review and comment, working through to ‘published knowledge’ – as in the Employment section, which was published in 2005 jointly with the Economic and Social Research Council as Working in the Twenty-First Century.

Regular articles in our Tomorrow Bulletin will provide members of the Tomorrow Network with examples of GLIMPSES material. We also welcome opportunities to link with other sites and networks.

The Tomorrow Project thanks its supporters, all those who have taken part in our consultations, Librios Ltd our expert partner in preparing the material for online publication, Juliet Kauffmann our editor, Dr.Averil Horton who provides statistical support, Nikoletta Stamatatos and Faye Parish for photographic research, Nikoletta Stamatatos for helping us greatly with our media and technology topic, and all those who have reviewed the material. We are grateful to all who have contributed to the creation of GLIMPSES, but any shortcomings are of course ours.

The Tomorrow Project welcomes comments on GLIMPSES, which should be sent to richard.worsley2@btinternet.com. We cannot undertake to respond to all such comments, but they will be carefully taken into account in the updating of GLIMPSES.

Latest from the Tomorrow Project

About us

The Project is an independent charity undertaking a programme of research, consultation and communication about people's lives in Britain in the next twenty years.

Its aims are

to help individuals and organisations to think and learn about the future of people's lives ...

in order to gain a better understanding of the present and ...

to learn about the choices which will influence the future.

Established in 1996 by Michael Moynagh and Richard Worsley, the Project's work addresses a constantly evolving range of topics, currently including:

Globalisation

Life course

Individuals, identity and values

Media and technology

Politics and government

Social exclusion

Employment

Sustainability

The project involves....

generic activities which we initiate ourselves, mainly related to macro trends and drivers of change in people's lives

regular consultations with experts and practitioners

publishing new material as it emerges from our work

the Tomorrow Network of individuals who have registered their interest in active involvement with the Project

How does the Project promulgate the results of its work?

Our aim, in fulfilment of the Project's educational purpose, is to bring the results of our work to as wide an audience as possible. We do this

through publications

Tomorrow

Tomorrow's Workplace: Fulfilment or Stress?

The State Of The Countryside 2020

Learning From The Future – Scenarios For Post-16 Learning

The Opportunity Of A Lifetime: Reshaping Retirement

Working in the Twenty-First Century

through The Tomorrow Bulletin three times a year. The Bulletin contains articles, interviews and news, all designed to help stimulate thinking about the future.

through lectures, articles and broadcasts. The Project's staff provide regular articles and broadcasts for the media and undertake a steady programme of speeches at conferences and seminars.

through our website – www.tomorrowproject.net

What is distinctive about the Project?

There has been a welcome increase in the use of futures thinking by a variety of organisations. Among such organisations, the Tomorrow Project is distinctive in

its focus on people

its wide span of topics – embracing virtually every aspect of people's lives

collaborative research – and particularly the consultations which are the hallmark of its work

its distinctive methodology – where are we now? what are the drivers of change? what are the possible outcomes? what are their implications?

its extensive network of participants – both through the Tomorrow Network and the Project's proven ability to involve participants of high distinction and expertise

its independence – the Project is not beholden to any individual organisation, party or political viewpoint, exploring outcomes and their implications as opposed to campaigning for particular policies

its charitable status – which means that its costs include no profit margin and that its income is fully dedicated to and fed back into its educational purposes

How is the Project governed and managed?

The Tomorrow Project is a registered charity (no. 04072187) and the Trustees are:

Patrick Coldstream, Chairman of the Trustees

Joel Hagan

Clare Hobro, Actuary, Hewitt Bacon and Woodrow

John Naylor, Treasurer of The Tomorrow Project and Chair of the Office of the Scottish Charity Regulator

Terry Sheppard, our Project Accountant and formerly Bursar of St John's College, Nottingham

Professor John Wood, Chief Executive, Council for the Central Laboratory of the Research Councils

The day to day management of the Project is undertaken under the strategic guidance of, and with accountability to, the Trustees by the Project's two Co-directors and the founders of the Project, Michael Moynagh and Richard Worsley.

The Project has no premises of its own, operating flexibly and virtually, with Michael Moynagh working from Templeton College, Oxford, and Richard Worsley operating from his home in Norfolk.

Other support services, including data collection, publication design and editing and media relations, are sub-contracted as needed.

At least once a year, we bring our supporters together to consult them about the Project's plans and progress.

How is the Project financed?

The annual expenditure of the Project, based on 2005, is some £168,000, made up of

salaries (58%);

running costs (25%);

consultations and outputs (12%)'

sub-contracts (5%).

The larger majority of the income to cover these costs is derived from supporters, the normal arrangement with each of whom is a contribution of £10,000 a year, usually agreed for three years. The balance comes from speaking engagements and sale of publications.

How did the Project come into being?

Michael Moynagh and Richard Worsley first discussed undertaking a project on the future of people's lives while on a visit to Washington DC on behalf of the Confederation of British Industry, for whom both were working at the time. They developed their thoughts in discussion with the staff of St. George's House, Windsor (with whom the Project was to renew close links in later years). However, the great attraction of the project they envisaged was sadly not matched by its practicality at that stage of their careers and family lives.

It therefore remained on the shelf until 1995, when their circumstances (Michael's in the Church of England and Richard's following a series of roles in large companies) enabled them to revive the project. It was launched in 1996, with an initial group of supporters enthusiastically combining to back what had now become the Tomorrow Project – as a three-year venture.

After the three years culminated in the publication of Tomorrow in 1999, the founders received widespread encouragement not to terminate the Project as originally planned. Supporters and others commented that, during the three years, it had successfully developed a substantial intellectual capital, a valuable process (helping organisations to raise their sights beyond the time horizons usually achievable within an organisation) and an enthusiastic network of participants.

Discussion during 2000 to test these comments resulted in the decision to establish the Project on the more permanent basis on which it now operates.

The Project achieved charitable status in own right in 2001, having operated between 1996 and 1999 under the charitable auspices of the Carnegie UK Trust.

What do people say about us?

'I do not know of another example of an exercise in which producing worthwhile and stimulating ideas about the future has been undertaken in such a thorough and thoughtful way.'

Lord Butler of Brockwell (former Cabinet Secretary)

'Brimming with insights – guided by careful scrutiny of the latest research evidence and leading edge thinking.'

Professor Peter Nolan, Director of the Economic and Social Research Council's Future of Work Programme (on Tomorrow's Workplace)

'You make me think.'

Michael Willmott – the Future Foundation

'An important and influential project.' 'You punch beyond your weight.'

John Reynolds, (then) Director, DTI Future and Innovation Unit

'You have made a huge success of your project. No other body is at present taking such an overall, comprehensive and long-term view of our future.'

Professor Charles Handy

'Tomorrow has the potential to help each one of us to think through the possibilities which lie ahead, while promoting an informed debate about the consequences of decisions we make today.'

The Prime Minister (on Tomorrow)

'As Michael Moynagh and Richard Worsley point out in their new book, there is a need for a more flexible, more fluid approach to the transition from full-time working to more flexible arrangements in which the existing concept of retirement is replaced by that of lifelong fulfilment.'

Richard Donkin, Financial Times (on The Opportunity of a Lifetime: Reshaping Retirement)

'For my part I think the report will be seminal in nature and will be eventually viewed as the first major attempt to intrinsically link the issues of age discrimination, pensions and retirement.'

Keith Handley, Vice-President, Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (on The Opportunity of a Lifetime: Reshaping Retirement)

'Just wanted to say how wonderful I thought your book Working in the Twenty-First Century was, I thought the selection of topics and the way in which they were approached was both accessible and rigorous.'

Professor Dame Sandra Dawson, Director, The Judge Institute and Master of Sidney Sussex College

'Mr. Moynagh's and Mr. Worsley's book represents the clearest, most thorough and studied body of research in the UK to emerge in recent years and should be required reading for policy-makers and human resources directors.'

Richard Donkin, Financial Times (on Working in the Twenty-First Century)

The Tomorrow Network

The Tomorrow Network is a group of individuals (currently some 3000) with an interest in futures work and in the Project.

Membership is free of charge. Members receive:

The Tomorrow Bulletin, containing authoritative briefings on current and future trends and about our projects.

Invitations to Network events – three or four events a year – at which distinguished speakers address topics of current interest and which provide an opportunity for networking between members. Speakers have included:

Lord Butler of Brockwell and Dr Peter Kellner (on the future of government)

Professor Tim Brighoouse and Heather du Quesnay (on the future of learning)

Dr Tom Ling and Dr Linda Surh (on the future of genetics)

Hamish McRae and Bob Tyrrell (on 'Did the world change on 11 September?)

Professor Peter Cochrane (on the future of technology and jobs)

Professor Margaret Harris and Mike Hudson (on the future of the voluntary sector)

Lord Best and Professor Jonathan Bradshaw (on the future of poverty)

Ceridwen Roberts and Mary Crowley (on the future of parenting)

Professor Tom Ling and David Halpern (on the future of public services)

Dr Geoff Mulgan and Dr Wendy Schultz (on the future of the electronic media)

David Darton and Melanie Howard (on the future of the sexes)

Richard Cuthbertson and Martin Hayward (on the future of retailing)

Carl McCamish and Wim Thomas (on the future of energy)

Professors Andrew Briggs and Gabriel Aeppli (on the future of nanotechnology)

George Yip and Professor Martin Albrow (on the future of globalisation)

Charlie Woods and Stephen Boyle (on Scotland's place in the global economy)

Professor Charlie Jeffery, Rajiv Joshi, Professor Andy Macmillan and Fred Smith (on what will it mean to be Scottish?)

Dr. Sara Savage and Michael Willmott (on young people's attitudes and values)

Lenka Setkova and Cathy Pharoah (on the future of philanthropy and civil society)

Since 2007, we have started providing summaries of the presentations at Network events (click on link as below).

» Scotland's place in the global economy – 7 June 2007, Edinburgh

» What will it mean to be Scottish? – 20 June 2007, Glasgow

» Young people's attitudes and values – 24 July 2007, London

» The future of philanthropy and civil society – 13 November 2007, London

Please note that the responsibility for these summaries is the Tomorrow Project's, and that any shortcomings in summarising are ours and not the speakers.

Members also receive invitations to contribute to our work, where the member has relevant expertise and experience.

The Network:

Enables members to contribute to the Project's public benefit role through their involvement in a charity which promotes long-term thinking.

Enables us to distribute the results of our work widely.

Is an important source for our invitations to take part in it.

There is a special section of the Network for members based in Scotland (operated in partnership with Careers Scotland, the Scottish Executive, Scottish Enterprise and the Scottish Parliament) which has its own programme of events north of the Border.

To join the Network, please email Richard Worsley (richard.worsley2@btinternet.com) with your full name, organisation and postal address. Members' details are maintained on a Network database.

» Supporters are welcome to encourage as many individuals from their organisation as they wish to join the Tomorrow Network, and many see this as a useful additional benefit from their support.

We undertake not to pass on details of Network members for purposes unrelated to the work of the Tomorrow Project.

Bulletins

Click here for the latest Tomorrow bulletin

December 2007: Will people give up on democracy?

Previous editions

March 2007: Persistent poverty

December 2006: Computer games - a new economy?

September 2006: Changing values from freedom to self-improvement

March 2006: Introducing GLIMPSES & "The Future of Britishness"

August 2005: Interviews with religious leaders

A guide to futures thinking

The purpose of this guide is to provide a simple and practical approach to futures thinking.

Futures work has been developed by consultants and others to a high degree of sophistication and complexity. However this guide aims to present a straightforward approach to thinking about the long term that can be used by organisations themselves with limited help from outsiders. It does this by focusing on a simple methodology that the Tomorrow Project has used in its ten years of futures work, using examples taken from that work.

The guide has six sections:

What do we mean by futures thinking?

Futures thinking is about using a systematic approach to considering the long term. A whole range of futures methods has been developed in recent years, with different labels for different techniques. In a useful and detailed toolkit on the use of futures in science and technology, the Horizon Scanning Centre in the Department of Trade and Industry gives this description of the some of the many methods:1http://www.foresight.gov.uk; another really useful book on futures is The Future is Ours, by Graham May, Greenwood Press – ISBN 0275956792.

'Let us assume you are standing on the bridge of a ship. You scan the horizon (horizon scanning) and see an iceberg and your supply ship. You work out the likely speeds and directions of the iceberg and supply ship (trend analysis) and put the information into the ship’s computer (modelling) and then plot a course (roadmapping) so that you meet with the supply ship and not the iceberg. While you are doing this you dream of eating some nice chocolate that you hope is on the supply ship (visioning). You realise that the speeds and directions of the iceberg and supply ship might change, so you work out a range of possible options to make sure you have the greatest chance of meeting the supply ship (scenarios). Even with all of this planning, you know there is a chance of the unexpected and hitting the iceberg so you get the crew to do an evacuation drill (gaming). While they are doing it, you work back from the most likely future position of the supply ship to work out the steps you need to get there (backcasting).'

In this guide, we offer a basic approach which involves asking four questions about the topic being considered:

Where are we now?

What will influence the future?

What alternative futures exist (scenarios)?

So what?

Asking these questions separately and in that sequence provides a structured way of thinking that looks at the present through the eyes of the future. It often provides insights and ideas that don’t easily arise from thinking in a straight line about how to get from here to there.

When and why?

Futures thinking is a means of dealing with uncertainty. Plans can be blown off course, or the strategy for the whole may not fit the parts. Constructing scenarios can enable you to see if your strategy or decision would be robust in different, plausible circumstances.

Futures thinking helps you to understand the present. Just as studying the past can throw light on the here and now, so looking ahead can help you to see the significance of what is happening now. It requires you to understand the dynamics of the present, and to make judgements about how different trends will influence each other.

Futures can also help you to understand the assumptions the organisation is making about what lies ahead and to test whether they are valid. It encourages reflection about the long term and making the best use of the knowledge that exists within an organisation.

Futures thinking can be and is used in lots of different circumstances. Here we list eight of these, with examples taken from our own work with individual organisations.

Long-term strategy

What developments might occur that would influence the effectiveness of a plan or decision?

Short-term strategy

Although futures thinking usually has a 10-20 year horizon, it can also be used in shorter perspectives. In one or two years’ time, what would we think about our current plan/decision/policy in the circumstances that might prevail then?

Risk assessment

What circumstances or dynamics in an organisation, a sector or in our wider society create risks for us?

Some futures experts talk about ‘wild-cards’: events that they say no one could have predicted, that simply come out of the blue. But every event, however shocking and dramatic, has its own causes and reflects underlying dynamics within the system. The London bombings in July 2005, 9/11 and the Asian tsunami had all been predicted in some form. That does not mean that they could easily have been prevented. But one of the values of futures is to think in advance about those dynamics and to reflect on ways of reducing the likelihood of such events.

Research

Will the results of a commissioned or other piece of research remain valid for long? Did the research take sufficient account of long-term drivers and trends? (This is sometimes referred to as ‘future-proofing’.)

Problems

How might this problem look in five years’ time? How might others have tackled it by then? Have we thought of all the possible solutions? How can we release creative thinking about the problem by looking at what will drive possible solutions over the next five years, and by imagining alternative strategies that our competitors might adopt?

Testing proposed solutions

Will this solution work in tomorrow’s circumstances?

Managing change

Futures thinking can be one of the tools for managing change. By identifying the main issues facing a business and the factors likely to influence those issues in the future, it can help reach agreement around a programme of change and its components. Using futures to challenge people's assumptions can make them more ready to contemplate change.

Protecting the reputation of an organisation, department or individual

What will our successors say about the decisions we make today? Are we bequeathing good decisions to future generations? What will today’s decisions look like from their point of view?

How?

The vital first steps, all essential in determining the focus of the work, are to be clear about the audience, what questions they are asking and how they will use the results;

to be sure that everyone is clear on the question to be addressed, otherwise a project can easily lose focus and direction;

to agree which parts of your organisation and processes you want to be influenced and supported through a futures project;

to establish the time horizons on which you wish to base your discussions.

The four questions suggested in » What do we mean by futures thinking? can then provide a useful, practical framework for designing a futures project. Much of the value and focus can derive from taking each of these questions separately.

‘Where are we now?’ – making sure that the discussion is rooted in evidence

Possible approaches:

Ask an internal or external expert to prepare a briefing paper.

Invite your own staff, or a mixture of internal staff and external experts, to brainstorm the key issues as the start of a longer workshop.

Run a workshop devoted exclusively to ‘Where are we now?’, perhaps with the aim of clarifying the key issues. Much futures work is usefully done by working in groups and pooling knowledge.

‘What will influence the future?’ – drivers of change and continuity

Possible approaches:

Ask internal or external experts to prepare short briefing material on drivers of change to form the basis of discussion.

Hold a half-day/whole-day workshop, using a mixture of small groups and plenaries to brainstorm drivers of change, and then perhaps group the drivers or rank them. The drivers may be internal (i.e. specific to us as an organisation) or external.

The Tomorrow Project has created its GLIMPSES series of major trends and drivers to provide a framework for thinking about what is likely to be happening in the wider world, with a database of information and evidence under each of the headings:

Globalisation

Life course

Individuals, identity and values

Media and technology

Politics and government

Social exclusion

Employment

Sustainability

Working through such a series when thinking about drivers of change can help to make sure that you bring in a wide range of issues. It can also spark new ideas and thinking.

Which of the drivers are going to be the strongest influences? Which of them are you most sure about? Which are less certain? A thorough assessment and grouping of the drivers is important for success in going on to consider what might happen.

‘What possible futures might occur?’ – scenarios

The development of scenarios moves your discussion onwards, building on the two earlier questions and particularly the work you have done to identify drivers of change. It involves creating alternative pictures of the future to throw new light on existing plans and policies. How robust are these plans when tested against different possible futures?

If time allows, it is useful to separate out thinking about drivers and creating scenarios – giving time to reflect and to change the mindset to a different task.

There is no single model for the creation of scenarios, and not all futures work has to involve scenarios, but if you are using them the following thoughts may be helpful.

Don’t create too many scenarios – four is probably the most that can be used effectively.

Avoid the temptation to come up with scenarios about you ideally want to happen or what you fear might happen. The future is never all good or all bad.

The most useful scenarios will be those that are:

Plausible – they are rooted in evidence and linked to what is happening now; they won’t be dismissed as unrealistic.

Consistent – all the ingredients fit logically together, with explanations as to how you got there, what happens and why.

Challenging – they really make you think.

You will need to decide on the tensions, uncertainties or variables within which you want to frame your scenarios. This may have emerged from your discussion of drivers.

Sometimes scenarios are created in a very structured way, often around just two variables or axes. However the risk is that this may narrow down the thinking and the value by excluding other important issues. Alternatively you may choose a more intuitive approach, addressing several uncertainties or variables – and then come up with two, three or four separate stories which present alternatives against a range of uncertainties.

The structured approach has the merit of greater rigour, but may box you in. The intuitive approach may enable you to range more widely, possibly at the expense of rigour.

‘So what?’ – implications

This is the application stage – using the scenarios to consider the implications of the outcomes set out in your scenarios. What would these different possible outcomes mean for us? Do our plans really stack up once we have thought about them in this way?

This is the stage that ensures that your futures project is not just an exercise in futures for its own sake. It brings you right back to the present and is about supporting and informing today’s decisions. Too many scenario exercises are left on the shelf. This ‘so what?' stage needs to be planned in from the beginning and seen as the primary purpose.

How you do this will depend on:

The subject-matter: how wide is it? who is affected?

The processes that you want to be influenced and informed by your futures work: planning? budgeting? strategy? investment?

How often?

Ideally, futures thinking should be used as often as you make a critical decision, develop a plan, assess risks, receive the results of major research or have an important problem to solve.

Futures exercises should be done regularly to be most effective for learning. Too often senior managers hold a session on the future and think they have done it. But you can never ‘do’ the future because the world keeps changing and our understanding is imperfect. Futures exercises need not be time-consuming or resource intensive.

A two-hour meeting on a departmental problem could have this agenda:

What do we know about how the problem is experienced now? Is there important knowledge that we don’t have?

What key influences will shape how the issue is addressed in the months/years ahead?

What possible outcomes are there?

What should we do in the light of this discussion?

A meeting to consider commissioned research might have an agenda:

What are the research conclusions?

What influences will determine whether these conclusions hold good in the period ahead?

What are the possible ways that the conclusions will stay the same or change?

What is the significance of the research in the light of this discussion?

The bigger the issue, the more time and resources you may want to give to the futures dimension of it.

Embedding futures

If futures thinking is well-embedded in an organisation, it will be an integral part of strategy, planning and budgeting processes, owned from the top.

As more managers have direct experience of how thinking about the futures can help them in their particular jobs, support for it will spread.

Starting small may prove the most effective way of embedding futures thinking within an organisation. Why not use it occasionally to think about your team and its work?

It will help to find a champion for futures work at a senior level.

Can you find an existing agenda within the organisation where futures thinking can make a contribution and prove its value?

Deriving value from futures work may not happen quickly. It has taken some organisations many years to decide how best to use futures in their cultures and circumstances.

What are the key things to remember?

Ensure top level commitment

Keep it simple – beware of jargon and complex process. Process is no substitute for insight.

Be clear about what you will do with the results – and with which audiences. Who will use the results of the exercise and for what purpose? Who needs to know what? Can you summarise this in a sentence? What problem are you seeking to address?

Ensure that your futures work is systematic and regular – integrated into your strategy and policy processes.

Identify the right question – a futures exercise can’t address everything. So what is the key issue? Who's the work for? How will it be used? What question gets both to the heart of the issue and incorporates all the angles most relevant to it? This is probably the most important – and most difficult – part of a futures exercise. So it is worth spending time identifying that key question.

Keep your work evidence based – inspired guesses about the future are a poor substitute for hard evidence as to what has been happening and why.

Keep the different questions separate and distinct – if you try to get people to think about drivers, scenarios and implications all in one session, you are probably asking too much and the results won’t be as good.

Select the right participants – as far as possible, participants should be knowledgeable (they should have relevant expertise), representative (of those who have a stake in the question) and collaborative (able to speak on equal terms and work together).

Make sure participants are well-informed – give them simple preparatory briefing, not too much paper because they won’t read it, but something to bite on. Resist the temptation to try to sort it all out on paper in advance. We suggest one side of A4.

If they don’t have sufficient knowledge among themselves, identify what additional information they need and how you can convey it effectively at the start of the meeting. The quality of participants’ starting knowledge will influence the quality of the outputs.

Aim for scenarios that are plausible and challenging – they should be plausible enough to be taken seriously, and challenging enough to make you think out of the box. Scenarios shouldn’t be about what people want to happen or what they dread happening, but about the various possibilities as to what might happen.

Outside help – you may find outside advice useful in helping to design your events, and in facilitating them so that you and your colleagues can focus on the substance rather than the process. But as long as you keep it focused and simple, much futures work can be successfully undertaken without external involvement. One important form of outside help is inviting experts from other organisations to join you as participants and help to provide a wider perspective.

Seek feedback from those who take part

Fun, not dreary! You are likely to get the best results from futures events if people enjoy them – as a different, fresh way of thinking and working together.

THE AIM OF FUTURES THINKING SHOULD BE TO IMPROVE YOUR DECISION-MAKING

Publications

» Tomorrow

» Tomorrow's Workplace – Fulfilment or Stress?

» The State of the Countryside 2020

» Learning from the Future – Scenarios for Post-16 Learning

» The Opportunity of a Lifetime: Reshaping Retirement

» Working in the Twenty-First Century

» Futures and Educational Research

» Going global: key questions for the twenty-first century

The Tomorrow Project

The Tomorrow Project

Tomorrow

Tomorrow, published in 2000, was the result of the Project's first three years' work. It provided analysis and scenarios across across nine subjects and contained a foreword by the Prime Minister. We regret that the 2000 edition is now out of print.

Tomorrow's Workplace – Fulfilment or Stress?

by Michael Moynagh and Richard Worsley

What will be the place of paid work in tomorrow's Britain? How will work be organised? How will the values gap be managed? The answers will determine whether work is a positive experience in our lives or a cause of stress and tension. Will people be able to give of their best or will they be constantly worn down by pressure? And will employers be able to combine fulfilment of the people who work for them with their own organisational success?

Work/life balance

Styles of leadership

Self-management

Networks and relationships

To order, send an email request to richard.worsley2@btinternet.com

Price £16. Special price of £12 for members of the Tomorrow Network.

Click here to » Sample the book

The State of the Countryside 2020

a detailed report for the Countryside Agency

The state of the countryside 2020 is a detailed report commissioned by the Countryside Agency, a summary of which was published by the Agency in April 2003. The report takes a long-term view of the future of the English countryside by asking

Who will live in the countryside?

How will the people earn their living?

What will be the quality of life in the countryside?

...and then presents four scenarios.

Copies of the Agency's summary were distributed to members of our Network, reflecting the hope that the report will stimulate further and wider debate.

The full report may be purchased from the Agency for £2 (Countryside Agency Publications, PO Box 125, Wetherby, West Yorkshire LS23 7EP. Tel 0870 120 6466).

Learning from the Future – Scenarios for Post-16 Learning

Learning from the future is about the future of the learning and skills sector, and is the culmination of work undertaken by the Tomorrow Project in conjunction with the Learning and Skills Development Agency (LSDA). It takes a long-term view of the forms and structures of the learning and skills sector in England and Wales.

Using the Tomorrow Project's established methodology, the report is structured around four questions.

Where are we now?

What will influence the future?

What are the possible outcomes (scenarios)?

So what?

Copies may be obtained from the Learning & Skills Research Centre

Tel: 01823 668460

Website: www.LSRC.ac.uk

The Opportunity of a Lifetime: Reshaping Retirement

... is the title of our new report on the future of retirement, which was published on 12 March, 2004.

We published this report with the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development at the end of a two-year project. Its central theme is that, in a future of longer lives, greater individual choice and changes at work, we no longer have to take it for granted that the idea of retirement as we have known it – for most people at a single, fixed date chosen by others – should remain unchanged.

It presents analysis and scenarios about work in later life, the evolution of the state pension and new approaches to savings – and offers the prospect of a future in which retirement is reshaped and the foundations laid for a very different approach to later life and a more flexible, fulfilling and rewarding old age.

Copies of the summary have been sent to all members of the Tomorrow Network, and is available on this website as a pdf (The Opportunity of a Lifetime: summary).

Copies of the full report are available from the Tomorrow Project at £20 (including postage and packing, cheques to The Tomorrow Project please). Click » Contact us for full address.

Working in the Twenty-First Century

Working in the Twenty-First Century draws on the latest research from the Economic & Social Research Council's Future of Work Programme to look at contemporary changes in work and future prospects. It describes recent trends, what will drive future developments and the implications of the emerging landscape. The sixteen questions it covers include:

What will be the quality of tomorrow's jobs?

Will there be better opportunities for women?

Will we depend on migrant workers?

Is the 'end of jobs for life' a myth?

Will home-working really take off?

What sort of organisations will people work in?

Will workers be empowered or controlled?

How will they be rewarded?

What's the future for the work-life balance?

It is written for people in management, trade unions, government, research, education and the professions who want to increase their understanding of the workplace or need to make policy affecting it.

Copies of Working the Twenty-First Century are available from the Tomorrow Project at £20, including postage and packing, (cheques to the The Tomorrow Project please).

» Contact us

Futures and Educational Research

Jointly published with the National Education Research Forum.

Futures and Educational Research describes a project using futures methods to examine the needs for education research over the next 20 years and how they can be met.

The report initially identifies a set of developments in society that indicate a particular need for better understanding through education research. It then uses the concept of 'knowledge management' to offer a systemic approach to viewing education by conceptualising it under four headings:

Aims – the basis for policy, ultimately decided by Parliament.

Tasks – the broad categories of action that need to be done consistently well throughout the education system if aims are to be fulfilled.

Practice – the specific actions that enable each task to be accomplished.

Continuous learning – the methods used by practitioners to make constant improvements in the actions they take to enable tasks to be accomplished.

The report envisages, with examples, how there can be a place for virtually every type of education research within this framework, and suggests that it could be helpful in

providing a mental map for viewing as a whole what is currently a fragmented research sector;

underlining the diversity of research required within the education system;

helping policy-makers and commissioners of research to identify research priorities;

helping individual researchers describe more clearly the contribution that their research would make.

It also suggests that an important role can be served by including futures methods in the education research process in all the four categories listed above.

Read or download the report: Futures and Educational Research

Going global: key questions for the twenty-first century

Going Global addresses a series of aspects of globalisation including emerging economies, the gap between rich and poor nations, global communications, feeding the world's population, migration, terrorism, crime, climate change and energy.

The chapter headings are:

1. Getting your mind round globalisation

2. How fast will the global economy grow?

3. Will the emerging economies catch up with the West?

4. Will the gap between the richest and the poorest countries narrow?

5. How will the world feed its growing population?

6. What will happen to global migration?

7. How will global communications impact people's lives?

8. How will the world be governed?

9. What will successful organisations be like?

10. Who will win the 'war on terror'?

11. Will global crime get the upper hand?

12. How will the world manage climate change?

13. Will we have enough energy?

14. What will change?

In each case the book reviews where we are now, looks at potential trends for the next twenty years and then considers the implications.

Professor Jan Aart Scholte of the Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation at the University of Warwick has commented: 'A compact and comprehensive guide for the concerned citizen. Globalisation is made accessible, the choices ahead are made clear.'

Going Global is the latest in our series of publications produced in partnership with the Economic and Social Research Council (for details see » The Tomorrow Project and the ESRC).

It is published by A & C Black with Guardian Books and copies may be obtained through http://www.acblack.com/Catalogue/details.asp?sku=1425067&dept%5Fid=16.

Our supporters

The organisations which have supported the Project and provided its main source of income and help in kind are listed on the left. We welcome contact from any organisation interested in becoming a supporter.

(Bold type indicates the organisations supporting the Tomorrow Project in 2007. Names of earlier supporters are as they were at the time of their involvement with us.)

Companies

Abbey

Anderson

BBC

Boots

British Energy

BT

BUPA

Chartered Institute of Personnel & Development

Country Land and Business Association

Financial Services Research Forum

First

GlaxoSmithKline

Hewitt, Bacon & Woodrow

IBM

Librios

Manpower

Post Office

PricewaterhouseCoopers

Rio Tinto

Royal Mail

SchlumbergerSema

Scottish Equitable

Swiss Re

Unilever

United Biscuits

Whitbread

Government departments

Department for Communities and Local Government

Department for Education and Skills

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Department of Trade and Industry

Department for Transport

Department for Work and Pensions

Northern Ireland Administration

Scottish Executive

Government agencies

Careers Scotland

Commission for Rural Communities

East Midlands Development Agency

Forestry Commission

Financial Services Authority

Health Development Agency

Learning and Skills Development Agency

Local Government Analysis and Research

Scottish Enterprise

Skillset

Voluntary, professional and other organisations

Carnegie UK Trust

Charities Aid Foundation

CMS

Esmée Fairbairn Foundation

Joseph Rowntree Foundation

YMCA

The Tomorrow Project and the ESRC

In 2006 the Tomorrow Project reached agreement on an important new partnership with the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC). This partnership, which has been agreed in principle for three years, will in its first year involve four elements:

a publication in 2007 on the future of globalisation, based on the model of our earlier joint publication with the ESRC Working in the Twenty-First Century. This task is being supported by a steering group drawn from the business, government and academic worlds. The project is being undertaken in collaboration with the Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation at the University of Warwick, where Michael Moynagh has a visiting fellowship for this purpose;

support by the ESRC for our GLIMPSES database of emerging trends;

a programme of events designed to support the interaction between researchers and practitioners in the public, private and voluntary sectors, including support by the ESRC for our Tomorrow Network events, and

a programme of secondments.

Subject to review during the first year, the subsequent years of the partnership will follow a similar format.

We are delighted to have concluded this agreement, which will help to add value to the ESRC's research by placing it in a forward-looking context and support the Council's task of disseminating knowledge and promoting public understanding of the social sciences, and will enhance the scope and impact of the Tomorrow Project's outputs.

We will provide details of the results of the project as they emerge through the Tomorrow Bulletin and our other communications.

Our staff

Two Co-directors

The Revd. Dr. Michael Moynagh is based at Templeton College, Oxford. He has written extensively on social policy issues. He has been a member of the advisory group for the ESRC's Future of Work Programme and the advisory panel for the DTI's Future and Innovation Unit. Among his publications are the award winning books Making Unemployment Work (1987), Changing World, Changing Church (2000) and Emergingchurch.intro (2004).

Richard Worsley was Group Personnel Director and then Director of Community Affairs at BT. Earlier jobs were with British Aerospace (Head of Personnel), the CBI (Director of Social Affairs) and the Engineering Employers Federation. He directed the Carnegie UK Trust's Third Age Programme, for whom his book Age and Employment was published, and chaired the Steering Committee for the Better Government for Older People programme. He is chairman of the charity StartHere, which provides information to people in need.

Michael Moynagh and Richard Worsley are the co-authors of Tomorrow (2000), Tomorrow's Workplace: Fulfilment or Stress? (2001), The State of the Countryside 2020 (2003), Learning from Tomorrow – Scenarios for Post-16 Learning (2003), The Opportunity of a Lifetime – Reshaping Retirement (2004) and Working in the Twenty-First Century (2005).

Revd. Dr Michael Moynagh

Career details:

1978-82, Confederation of British Industry, Policy Adviser (on pay and then on unemployment)

1985 onwards, ordained Minister in the Church of England

1996 to date, Co-Director, The Tomorrow Project

Qualifications:

1973, BA, Southampton University (history)

1974 MA, Institute of Commonwealth Studies, London University (area studies (Commonwealth))

1978, Ph.D. (Pacific Studies), Australia National University

1985 MA, Bristol University (political theology)

Publications:

Making Unemployment Work (Lion, 1987)

Tomorrow (with Richard Worsley, LexiCon, 2000)

Changing World, Changing Church (Monarch, 2000)

Tomorrow's Workplace: Fulfilment or Stress? (with Richard Worsley, The Tomorrow Project, 2001)

The State of the Countryside 2020 (with Richard Worsley, The Countryside Agency, 2003)

Learning from Tomorrow – Scenarios for Post-16 Learning (with Richard Worsley, The Learning and Skills Development Agency, 2003)

The Opportunity of a Lifetime – Reshaping Retirement (with Richard Worsley, The Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development, 2004)

Emergingchurch.intro (Monarch, 2004)

Working in the Twenty-First Century (with Richard Worsley, ESRC/Tomorrow Project, 2005)

Richard Worsley

Career details:

1966-1978, Engineering Employers Federation – a succession of national and local negotiation roles in the EEF's headquarters and in three of its constituent Associations

1978-1983, Confederation of British Industry, Director of Social Affairs

1986, British Aerospace, Manager Employee Relations, then Head of Personnel

1986-1993, BT, Group Personnel Director, also with responsibility for the company's community affairs programme

1993-96, and part-time thereafter, Director, Carnegie Third Age Programme

1996 to date, Co-Director, The Tomorrow Project

Qualifications:

1964, BA, Cambridge University (law)

Publications:

Age and Employment (ACE Books, 1996)

Tomorrow (with Michael Moynagh, LexiCon, 2000)

Tomorrow's Workplace: Fulfilment or Stress? (with Michael Moynagh, The Tomorrow Project, 2001)

The State of the Countryside 2020 (with Michael Moynagh, The Countryside Agency, 2003)

Learning from Tomorrow – Scenarios for Post-16 Learning (with Michael Moynagh, The Learning and Skills Development Agency, 2003)

The Opportunity of a Lifetime – Reshaping Retirement (with Michael Moynagh, The Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development, to be published March 2004)

Working in the Twenty-First Century (with Michael Moynach, ESRC/Tomorrow Project, 2005)

Some articles by Michael Moynagh and Richard Worsley

'The Future of Families', Epworth Review, 26(1), 1999, pp. 13-21.

'Tomorrow: life in 2020', RSA Journal, 2/4, 2000, pp. 57-59.

'Tomorrow's Family', College Research, Learning and Skills Development Agency, 2000, p. 39.

'Prophet Sharing', People Management, The Magazine of the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, 27 December 2001.

'Tomorrow's consumer – The shifting balance of power', Journal of Consumer Behaviour, 1(3), An International Research Review, Henry Stewart Publications, February 2002.

'Policing 2020', Police research and management, Volume 5(4), 2001/2002, pp. 1-14.

'The Future of Retirement', The Futurist, 2004.

Contact us

- through Richard Worsley

Mail: PO Box 160

Burnham Norton

King's Lynn

Norfolk PE31 8GA

UK

Telephone: 01328 730297

Fax: 01328 730403

Email: richard.worsley2@btinternet.com

Links to relevant websites

Academic

The Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation focuses on definition, measurement, impacts, and policy implications in its two fields.

The Economic and Social Research Council – ESRC’s website ‘Society Today’.

The Institute for Employment Research at Warwick University focuses its research on the operation of labour markets and socio-economic processes related to employment and unemployment in the UK at national, regional and local levels.

The Institute for Employment Studies is a national centre of expertise on productivity, manpower planning and labour market change, providing research and evidence-based consultancy in employment, labour market and human resource policy and practice.

The Local Government Centre at the University of Warwick conducts research into local government and governance, regional governance and policy evaluation of national and local programmes, political leadership and the ‘modernisation of local government’.

The Policy Studies Institute conducts research to promote economic well-being and improve quality of life. PSI enjoys a reputation for the rigorous and impartial evaluation of policy in the UK and Europe.

The Social Issues Research Centre conducts research into social and lifestyle issues, monitors and assesses global sociocultural trends and provides new insights into human behaviour and social relations.

Universities UK provides a voice a